söndag 22 februari 2015

Moderata arabländer är lika bekymrade som Israel över de hemliga förhandlingarna och alla söker egna kärnvapen.

Länk

Moderata arabländer är minst lika bekymrade inför Iran som Israel. Obongo inser att ingen i Mellanöstern mer än Erdogan litar längre på USAs löften.
Nu börjar man återigen höra Hillarys gamla tjafs om "kärnvapenparaply" men ingen förutom lefties i EU tror längre på Obongon. Pressen är förstås dödstyst.



Inte bara Israel: arabstaterna också oroliga för Obamas privata  Iran Deal

Arabiska regeringar har enligt uppgift berättat för Washington att de fruktar en dålig affär med Iran kommer att orsaka en kärnvapenkapprustning i Mellanöstern.

Av Elad Benari
Först Publicerat: 2015/02/22, 03:12

Arabiska regeringar har privat uttryckt sin oro till Washington om den framväxande formen av en potentiell kärnvapenaffär med Iran, The Wall Street Journal rapporterade i fredags, [inkopierad här i slutet av sidan] citerar arabiska och amerikanska tjänstemän som deltar i överläggningarna.

Enligt rapporten har den riktning amerikanska diplomatin med Teheran lagt bränsle till farhågor i vissa arabstater i ett kärnvapen-kapprustning i regionen, samt återuppliva prata om eventuellt utvidga en amerikansk kärnvapenparaply till Mellanöstern allierade för att motverka eventuella iranska hotet.

De stora sunni stater, däribland Saudiarabien, Egypten, Förenade Arabemiraten och Qatar, har sagt att ett slutligt avtal kan tillåta shiadominerade Iran, deras regionala rival, för att hålla den teknik som behövs för att producera kärnvapen, enligt dessa tjänstemän, samtidigt tar bort många av de sanktioner som har begränsat dess ekonomi under de senaste åren.

Arabiska tjänstemän sade att en affär skulle sannolikt driva Saudiarabien, bland andra, för att försöka att snabbt matcha Irans kärnfunktioner, enligt The Wall Street Journal.

"I detta skede föredrar vi en kollaps av den diplomatiska processen mot en dålig affär", sa en arabisk tjänsteman som har diskuterat Iran med Obama-administrationen och Saudiarabien under de senaste veckorna, till tidningen.

Obama-administrationen sade från början att hans politik var att helt avveckla Teherans nukleära infrastruktur som ett sätt att skydda Washingtons Mellanösternallierade.

Men nu säger tjänstemän  att det inte längre är rimligt att eliminera alla Irans nukleära infrastruktur, vilket tyder på att någon slutlig överenskommelse skulle lämna en del kärnvapenkapacitet på plats.

Enligt The Wall Street Journal har arabiska tjänstemän alltmer talat om en möjlig kärnvapenkapprustning i Mellanöstern eftersom förhandlingarna har pågått i 18 månader, efter att ha förlängts två gånger.

Amerikanska tjänstemän har avböjt att offentliggöra villkoren för affären som förhandlas med Iran. Men de betonar att de har samrått nära med Washingtons arabiska allierade om den diplomatiska processen. [Inte Israel förstås.]

Obama-administrationen anser att ett avtal med Iran kommer att inskränka möjligheterna för en kärnvapenkapprustning i Mellanöstern, snarare än att ge bränsle till en.

"Bara en bra förhandlingslösning kommer att resultera i långsiktigt förtroende för att Iran inte kommer att förvärva ett kärnvapen", lär en citerad senior amerikansk tjänsteman ha sagt.

"Med tanke på att Iran  redan har den tekniska kapaciteten, har vårt mål alltid varit att få till stånd en ettårs breakout och klippa av de fyra vägarna under ett mycket ansträngt program", tillade tjänstemannen.

Med tanke på  problem som de arabiska allierade uppvisar, kan Vita huset tvingas ge dem större säkerhetsgarantier om det ingår ett avtal som stoppar kort före demontering av Teherans förmåga att producera kärnbränsle, berättade några tidigare amerikanska tjänstemän The Wall Street Journal, som citerar ett eventuellt behov att placera arabstater i Persiska viken under USA:s kärnvapenparaply.

"Det kommer att destabilisera situationen för våra vänner och allierade," sade Stephen Hadley, en nationell säkerhetsrådgivare till president George W Bush,  vid en 11 feb konferens där Atlantrådet stod som värd, en Washington tankesmedja. "De kommer antagligen under alla omständigheter, what the heck, för att försöka få sina egna kärnkraftsprogram."

Vita huset har betonat sin policy att inte begränsa Teheran, men att förneka dem förmågan att producera atombomber, vilket gör en formell försvarspakt onödig. Men samtalen har underblåst regional ångest, och arabiska tjänstemän har haft diskussioner om ett eventuellt kärnvapenparaply med tidigare amerikanska tjänstemän och akademiker inom de senaste veckorna.

Arabiska regeringar har inte försökt anpassa sina uttalanden med Israel, men delar många av landets rädsla, sade USA och arabiska diplomater.

Premiärminister Benjamin Netanyahu, som varit den kanske mest högljudda kritikern av affären med Iran, sade förra veckan att Israel vet detaljerna i det planerade kärnkraftsavtalet med Iran och varnade för att det är mycket dåligt.

"Jag tror att det är ett dåligt avtal som är farligt för staten Israel, och inte bara för oss", säger Netanyahu och tillade: "Om någon tror något annat, varfr försöker USA gömma det?"

State Departments taleskvinna Jen Psaki  ifrågasatte senare huruvida Netanyahu verkligen vet "mer än förhandlarna" om samtalen, säger "det finns ingen affär ännu." [Kort och gott - ingen har en aning om vad som kommer att dyka upp i Obongos hjärna den sista sekunden.]

"Självklart, om det blir ett avgörande  kommer vi att förklara affären och förklara varför och hur den förhindrar Iran från att skaffa kärnvapen. Och om så är fallet och vi kommer till en affär, är det svårt att se hur någon inte skulle se att det är till fördel för det internationella samfundet ", tillade Psaki.

Obama-administrationen har erkänt att Iran kommer att få behålla tusentals centrifuger som används för att producera kärnbränsle som en del av ett slutgiltigt avtal. Saudiarabien, Förenade Arabemiraten och andra har argument att dessa maskiner bör helt demonteras, eftersom centrifuger kunde användas för både civila och militära ändamål.

Trots att de delar Israels oro för Iranaffären, har arabiska ledare som inte härdat sina samtal för USA att även behandla Israels misstänkta kärnvapenarsenalen, noterade The Wall Street Journal.

Även om arabländerna inte offentligt samordnar sin position med Israel,  fanns det rapporter under de senaste månaderna, främst komna från Iran, att Israel samarbetar med Saudiarabien mot Irans nukleära program.

Irans anklagelser kom i en rad iranska medier som rapporterar och hävdar bland annat att chefen för den saudiska underrättelsetjänsten träffade flera ledande israeliska säkerhetstjänstemän och att en saudiarabisk delegation flög till Israel för möten med högt uppsatta israeliska tjänstemän, inklusive Netanyahu.

En tidigare rapport sade att Israel och Saudiarabien hade slagit sig ihop för att lansera ett virus mot Irans nukleära program.



Not Just Israel: Arab States Worried About Iran Deal

Arab governments reportedly tell Washington they fear a bad deal with Iran will cause a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

By Elad Benari
First Publish: 2/22/2015, 3:12 AM



Bushehr nuclear reactor
Reuters


Arab governments have been privately expressing their concern to Washington about the emerging terms of a potential nuclear deal with Iran,The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing Arab and U.S. officials involved in the deliberations.

According to the report, the direction of American diplomacy with Tehran has added fuel to fears in some Arab states of a nuclear-arms race in the region, as well as reviving talk about possibly extending a U.S. nuclear umbrella to Middle East allies to counter any Iranian threat.

The major Sunni states, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, have said that a final agreement could allow Shiite-dominated Iran, their regional rival, to keep the technologies needed to produce nuclear weapons, according to these officials, while removing many of the sanctions that have crippled its economy in recent years.

Arab officials said a deal would likely drive Saudi Arabia, for one, to try to quickly match Iran’s nuclear capabilities, according to The Wall Street Journal.

“At this stage, we prefer a collapse of the diplomatic process to a bad deal,” an Arab official who has discussed Iran with the Obama administration and Saudi Arabia in recent weeks told the newspaper.

The Obama administration initially said its policy was to completely dismantle Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure as a means to protect Washington’s Mideast allies.

Now, however, officials say it is no longer plausible to eliminate all of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, suggesting that any final deal would leave some nuclear capability in place.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Arab officials have increasingly spoken about a possible nuclear arms race in the Mideast as the negotiations have continued for 18 months, having been extended twice.

U.S. officials have declined to publicly disclose terms of the deal being negotiated with Iran. But they stress that they have closely consulted with Washington’s Arab allies about the diplomatic process.

The Obama administration believes an agreement with Iran will curtail the potential for a nuclear arms race in the Mideast, rather than fuel one.

“Only a good negotiated solution will result in long-term confidence that Iran won’t acquire a nuclear weapon,” a senior American official was quoted as having said.

“Given Iran already has the technical capability, our goal has always been to get to one-year breakout time and cut off the four pathways under a very constrained program,” added the official.

Given the concerns of Arab allies, the White House may need to provide them with greater security guarantees if it concludes a deal that stops short of dismantling Tehran’s ability to produce nuclear fuel, some former U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal, citing the possible need to place Arab states in the Persian Gulf under the U.S.’s nuclear umbrella.

“It will be destabilizing to our friends and allies,” Stephen Hadley, a national-security adviser to President George W. Bush , said at a February 11 conference hosted by the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank. “They will probably, in any event, hedge, in trying to have their own nuclear programs.”

The White House has stressed its policy isn’t to contain Tehran, but to deny it the capability to produce atomic bombs, making a formal defense pact unnecessary. But the talks have stoked regional anxiety, and Arab officials have held discussions about a possible nuclear umbrella with former U.S. officials and academics within recent weeks.

Arab governments have steered clear of aligning their statements with Israel, but share many of that country’s fears, U.S. and Arab diplomats said.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who has been perhaps the most vocal critic of the deal with Iran, said last week that Israel knows the details of the planned nuclear deal with Iran and warned that it is a bad one.

"I think this is a bad agreement that is dangerous for the state of Israel, and not just for it," said Netanyahu, adding, "If anyone thinks otherwise what is there to hide here?"

State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki later questioned whether Netanyahu indeed knows “more than the negotiators” about the talks, saying “there is no deal yet.”

"Obviously, if there's a deal we'll be explaining the deal and explaining why and how it prevents Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. And if that's the case and we come to a deal, it's hard to see how anyone wouldn't see that's to the benefit of the international community," added Psaki.

The Obama administration has acknowledged that Iran will be allowed to maintain thousands of the centrifuge machines used to produce nuclear fuel as part of any final deal. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others have argued these machines should be completely dismantled, since the centrifuges could be used for both civilian and military purposes.

Despite sharing Israel’s concerns about an Iran deal, Arab leaders haven’t tempered their calls for the U.S. to also address Israel’s suspected nuclear weapons arsenal, noted The Wall Street Journal.

While Arab countries are not publicly aligning their position with Israel, there were reports in recent months, mostly based out of Iran, that Israel was collaborating with Saudi Arabia against Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran’s accusations came in a series of Iranian media reports claiming, among other things, that the head of the Saudi intelligence service met with several senior Israeli security officials and that a Saudi Arabian delegation flew to Israel for meetings with high-ranking Israeli officials, including Netanyahu.

An earlier report said that Israel and Saudi Arabia had teamed up to launch a virus against Iran’s nuclear program.












Obama Parries Questions on Iran Deal From Arabs as Well as Israelis

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, others worry about regional arms race; new talk of extending U.S. ‘umbrella’


President Barack Obama stands at left as Secretary of State John Kerry, right, greets the new Saudi Arabian King, Salman bin Abdul Aziz in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Jan. 27.ENLARGE
President Barack Obama stands at left as Secretary of State John Kerry, right, greets the new Saudi Arabian King, Salman bin Abdul Aziz in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Jan. 27. PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON—Arab governments are privately expressing their concern to Washington about the emerging terms of a potential deal aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program, according to Arab and U.S. officials involved in the deliberations.
The direction of U.S. diplomacy with Tehran has added fuel to fears in some Arab states of a nuclear-arms race in the region, as well as reviving talk about possibly extending a U.S. nuclear umbrella to Middle East allies to counter any Iranian threat.
The major Sunni states, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, have said that a final agreement could allow Shiite-dominated Iran, their regional rival, to keep the technologies needed to produce nuclear weapons, according to these officials, while removing many of the sanctions that have crippled its economy in recent years.
Arab officials said a deal would likely drive Saudi Arabia, for one, to try to quickly match Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
“At this stage, we prefer a collapse of the diplomatic process to a bad deal,” said an Arab official who has discussed Iran with the Obama administration and Saudi Arabia in recent weeks.
The Obama administration initially said its policy was to completely dismantle Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure as a means to protect Washington’s Mideast allies.
Now, however, U.S. officials say it is no longer plausible to eliminate all of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, suggesting that any final deal would leave some nuclear capability in place. Iran denies that it is seeking to build a nuclear bomb, but a final deal providing for nuclear enrichment capacity could prompt a competition.
Arab officials have increasingly spoken about a possible nuclear arms race in the Mideast as the negotiations have continued for 18 months, having been extended twice.
U.S. officials have declined to publicly disclose terms of the deal being negotiated with Iran. But they stress that they have closely consulted with Washington’s Arab allies about the diplomatic process.
The Obama administration believes an agreement with Iran will curtail the potential for a nuclear arms race in the Mideast, rather than fuel one.
“Only a good negotiated solution will result in long-term confidence that Iran won’t acquire a nuclear weapon,” a senior U.S. official said. “Given Iran already has the technical capability, our goal has always been to get to one-year breakout time and cut off the four pathways under a very constrained program.”
Secretary of State John Kerry is traveling to Geneva for direct talks Sunday and Monday with his Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif, aimed at pushing the diplomacy forward, according to U.S. officials. For the first time, a second cabinet member, Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz, will join the American delegation to advise on technical issues.
Secretary of State John Kerry, center right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in Geneva on Jan. 14 during a bilateral meeting ahead of a round of nuclear discussions.ENLARGE
Secretary of State John Kerry, center right, speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in Geneva on Jan. 14 during a bilateral meeting ahead of a round of nuclear discussions. PHOTO: EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY
American and Iranian officials have set a late March deadline for reaching a deal and said it would be difficult to extend it again due to political opposition in Tehran and Washington.
President Barack Obama has publicly placed the chances of a deal at less than 50-50. But he and Mr. Kerry both have voiced concern that a breakdown in the diplomatic process could renew tensions between the U.S. and Iran after a significant thaw over the past two years.
Given the concerns of Arab allies, the White House may need to provide them with greater security guarantees if it concludes a deal that stops short of dismantling Tehran’s ability to produce nuclear fuel, some former U.S. officials say. They particularly cite the possible need to place Arab states in the Persian Gulf under the U.S.’s nuclear umbrella.
“It will be destabilizing to our friends and allies,” Stephen Hadley, a national-security adviser to President George W. Bush , said at a Feb. 11 conference hosted by the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank. “They will probably, in any event, hedge, in trying to have their own nuclear programs.”
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton publicly raised the possibility in 2009 of the U.S. providing a “defense umbrella” to allied Mideast states.
The White House has stressed its policy isn’t to contain Tehran, but to deny it the capability to produce atomic bombs, making a formal defense pact unnecessary. But the talks have stoked regional anxiety, and Arab officials have held discussions about a possible nuclear umbrella with former U.S. officials and academics within recent weeks.
Arab governments have steered clear of aligning their statements with Israel, but share many of that country’s fears, U.S. and Arab diplomats say.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emerged as the most outspoken critic of the White House’s Iran diplomacy among the U.S.’s Mideast allies. He has repeatedly accused the U.S. of being on the verge of striking a historically weak agreement with Tehran. The Israeli leader is scheduled to speak March 3 before a joint session of Congress on the issue.
Tensions between the U.S. and Israel flared this week after the Obama administration accused Mr. Netanyahu’s government of misstating U.S. negotiating positions with Iran. U.S. officials also said they have withheld certain intelligence related to the diplomacy from the Israeli government, due to fears that it was being leaked to the media.
Mr. Netanyahu hasn’t backed down.
“We know that Tehran knows the details of the talks. Now I tell you that Israel also knows the details of the proposed agreement,” the Israeli leader said in a speech Thursday. “I think this is a bad agreement that is dangerous for the state of Israel, and not just for it. If anyone thinks otherwise, what is there to hide here?”
The Obama administration has acknowledged that Iran will be allowed to maintain thousands of the centrifuge machines used to produce nuclear fuel as part of any final deal. Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and others have argued these machines should be completely dismantled, since the centrifuges could be used for both civilian and military purposes.
Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former head of Saudi intelligence, said in November that his country would match the nuclear technologies Iran was allowed to maintain as part of any final agreement. Riyadh will “seek to have the same terms in developing our nuclear energy,” he told a conference in Washington.
The nuclear diplomacy is playing out against heightened tensions between Iran and many of the U.S.’s closest Arab partners in the Mideast.
Tehran is a close ally of the Shiite-dominated governments in Iraq and Syria and has provided financial support for Shiite Houthi militias that seized power in Yemen’s capital, San’a, last month. Sunni Arab leaders believe Tehran is making a land grab in the region, which is fueling support for Sunni terrorist groups like Islamic State and al Qaeda that are fighting in those three countries.
Arab leaders said they are committed to supporting the U.S. coalition fighting Islamic State. But they said the campaign is complicated by fears Washington is aligning with Tehran.
Despite sharing Israel’s concerns about an Iran deal, Arab leaders haven’t tempered their calls for the U.S. to also address Israel’s suspected nuclear weapons arsenal. The Jewish state is believed to have hundreds of atomic bombs, something it has neither confirmed nor denied.
“There has to be a regional approach,” former Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad said at the Atlantic Council last week.
Write to Jay Solomon at jay.solomon@wsj.com






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